Glaciers on the Move: Scientists Reveal How Fast Ice Shapes the Earth

 Glaciers have been Earth’s master sculptors for millions of years. From the towering peaks of the Canadian Rockies to the rolling farmland of the Prairies, their frozen force has carved valleys, shifted mountainsides, and laid down the rich soils that sustain life today. But until now, one question has remained surprisingly elusive: just how fast do these colossal rivers of ice reshape the planet?

A groundbreaking study, published on August 7 in Nature Geoscience by University of Victoria geographer Sophie Norris and an international team of researchers, provides the most detailed answer yet. The team used cutting-edge machine learning to predict the erosion rates of more than 180,000 glaciers across the globe — offering insights not only into how our landscapes formed in the past, but also how they may change in the future.

Measuring the Unmeasurable

The speed at which glaciers erode rock has always been difficult to measure. These massive ice bodies move slowly but with unimaginable pressure, grinding and plucking away at bedrock as they advance and retreat. Direct measurements are complicated by the dangerous and remote conditions at glacier bases, where the ice meets the rock.

“Given the extreme difficulty in measuring glacial erosion in active glacial settings, this study provides us with estimates of this process for remote locations worldwide,” says John Gosse of Dalhousie University, a co-author on the paper.

To get around the problem, Norris and her colleagues turned to machine learning. They gathered existing erosion measurements from various locations, along with data on climate, geology, glacier thickness, and geothermal heat. They then trained algorithms to find patterns and predict erosion rates for glaciers where direct measurements were impossible.

The results were revealing: 99 percent of glaciers erode at rates between 0.02 and 2.68 millimeters per year — roughly the thickness of a credit card. While that may sound slow, the scale of glaciers means the effect over centuries and millennia is enormous, shaping valleys, fjords, and entire regions.

The Factors Behind the Grind

The team’s analysis showed that glacier erosion is far from uniform. Rates vary depending on several key factors:

  • Temperature: Warmer ice can move more quickly, increasing the grinding force on rock beneath.

  • Subglacial Water: Meltwater lubricates the base of glaciers, speeding their movement and erosion capacity.

  • Rock Type: Softer rocks like shale erode faster than hard granite.

  • Geothermal Heat: Heat from deep within the Earth can affect how ice behaves and melts at its base.

“The conditions that lead to erosion at the base of glaciers are more complicated than we previously understood,” says Norris. “It’s not just about how big the glacier is or how fast it’s moving — the geology and heat flow beneath play a huge role.”

Why It Matters Today

Understanding how quickly glaciers carve the landscape isn’t just about solving geological puzzles from the past. It has critical modern applications.

For one, knowing erosion rates helps scientists predict how sediment and nutrients will move through rivers and into oceans. This has direct implications for ecosystems, fisheries, and water quality.

Another surprising application is in nuclear waste storage. Some countries are considering storing radioactive material in deep geological repositories in regions once covered by glaciers. Accurately predicting how future glaciations might erode these areas is crucial to keeping waste secure for thousands of years.

In Canada, the Nuclear Waste Management Organization supported part of this study for exactly that reason. “Long-term planning like this requires us to think in terms of tens of thousands of years,” says Norris. “You need to know how much rock could be stripped away during a future ice age.”

Global Reach, Local Impact

The research provides estimates for 85 percent of the world’s modern glaciers — from the high Arctic to the Himalayas, from the Alps to Antarctica. By using global datasets, the machine learning model can also project how erosion rates might change under different climate scenarios.

Climate change adds an extra layer of urgency to the work. As glaciers melt at unprecedented rates, their erosion patterns could shift dramatically. Faster meltwater flow might increase erosion in some areas, while complete ice loss could halt glacial carving altogether — replacing it with other forms of erosion like landslides or flooding.

In places like Greenland, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic, these changes will not only reshape the land but also affect human infrastructure, wildlife habitats, and carbon storage in soils and sediments.

Lessons from the Past, Warnings for the Future

To appreciate the scale of glacial erosion, consider the Canadian Prairies. Much of the fertile soil there was deposited by retreating glaciers about 12,000 years ago, creating some of the world’s most productive farmland. In western Canada’s Banff National Park, the deep U-shaped valleys that attract millions of tourists each year were carved by glaciers over tens of thousands of years.

Now, with glaciers retreating at a pace not seen in modern history, the processes that built these landscapes are slowing down or changing entirely. What took millennia to form may transform again in just decades.

The study’s findings could also inform hazard planning in mountainous regions. Areas experiencing higher erosion rates are more prone to rockfalls and landslides when ice retreats, potentially threatening communities and infrastructure below.

A Global Collaboration

Norris began the project during a postdoctoral fellowship at Dalhousie University before completing it at the University of Victoria. The work brought together researchers from the University of Grenoble Alpes (France), Dartmouth College (U.S.), Pennsylvania State University (U.S.), and the University of California, Irvine (U.S.), showing the truly global interest in understanding how ice shapes our world.

Their combined expertise allowed them to merge field data, satellite observations, and computer modeling into a single powerful analysis — something no single research group could have accomplished alone.

Looking Ahead

While the new study is the most comprehensive of its kind, it also opens up new questions. The models can estimate erosion rates for current conditions, but predicting changes in a warming world will require additional data on how glaciers respond to rapid climate shifts.

Future work could involve integrating even higher-resolution satellite imagery, expanding field measurements in understudied regions like the Antarctic interior, and refining the models to account for seasonal variations in melt and movement.

For Norris, the takeaway is clear: glaciers may seem slow and unchanging, but their influence on Earth’s surface is profound and ongoing. “We live on a planet that is constantly being reshaped,” she says. “Glaciers are one of the most powerful tools nature has for doing that.”

As climate change accelerates, the pace and pattern of that reshaping could change in ways we are only beginning to understand — making studies like this one not just a window into the past, but a guide for navigating the future.

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